If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Plus
11
Ṁ3722031
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the. Resolves N/A if Scott Alexander doesn't do this in 2030.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?
71% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
71% chance
If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?
19% chance
In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?
79% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
23% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
60% chance
Will we believe that AI character bots make it harder for kids to form human friendships by 2028?
61% chance
In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?
24% chance
By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?
68% chance
Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?
23% chance