Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

https://manifold.markets/Mactuary/is-chinas-lva-surgery-a-legitimate related market

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

44% chance. https://x.com/chenkojira/status/1859658593588613336 This market will resolve YES if, by December 31, 2025, at least one independent, peer-reviewed study corroborates the efficacy of deep cervical lymphatic-venous anastomosis (LVA surgery) for treating Alzheimer’s disease. The study must be conducted by a separate research group from the original claims and published in a high-impact, peer-reviewed scientific journal (e.g., Nature, The Lancet, or JAMA). The market will resolve NO on Dec 31, 2025 if no such corroborating evidence is available or sooner if significant evidence emerges that discredits the original claims.

Does it have to be a human in a clinical trial or do non-human primates count?

@TheRealTrolly I don't think non-primate clinical trials count no?

@typeofemale For me it is a bit unclear what "initially successful research" means. Does it need to be the result of an FDA registered first phase clinical trial?

@TheRealTrolly let me ask someone

needs better resolution criteria....

@tenobrus maybe something like "will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based alzheimers treatments by 2026?"

@tenobrus

Let me edit it

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