44% chance. https://x.com/chenkojira/status/1859658593588613336 This market will resolve YES if, by December 31, 2025, at least one independent, peer-reviewed study corroborates the efficacy of deep cervical lymphatic-venous anastomosis (LVA surgery) for treating Alzheimer’s disease. The study must be conducted by a separate research group from the original claims and published in a high-impact, peer-reviewed scientific journal (e.g., Nature, The Lancet, or JAMA). The market will resolve NO on Dec 31, 2025 if no such corroborating evidence is available or sooner if significant evidence emerges that discredits the original claims.