MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
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I think it will resolve as NO because:
People will lose interest in MMLU after around 95%, so it's possible that GPT-x or whatever SOTA there will be will not even be evaluated on it.
There are definitely at least some ambiguous or simply incorrect questions in MMLU, I am not sure how much but I will not be surprised if it's close to 1%.
Reaching 99% is usually much harder than 98%.
Metaculus predicts 93% in mid-2025, and I personally predict 91.5%. Will still be a long way to go.
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