If the US or a EU country becomes an economic and military ally with Russia before EOY 2050 and Russia is still not democratic, will Russian dissenters in that country face increased and significant refoulement, i. e. be extradited to Russia where they are likely to face oppression?

If the condition is not met (that is: EITHER no such country becomes Russia's ally, OR Russia becomes democratic before that happens), this market resolves N/A. It also resolves N/A if Russia doesn't exist by EOY 2050.

If the condition is met, the market resolves YES if a significant number of Russian dissenters are extradited to Russia where they will face oppression, and NO otherwise.

I will use Wikipedia, Western media, and my best judgement to determine if a country is Russia's economic and military ally, if Russia is democratic, and if Russian dissenters face refoulement.

The reason I'm creating this market is because I came across a claim along the lines of "if a significant political need arises and Western democratic countries have to befriend Russia, they will extradite Russian dissenters to please their ally." So I wanted to turn it into a prediction market, to turn it into a falsifiable prediction.

See also Operation Keelhaul:

Operation Keelhaul was a forced repatriation of Soviet citizens and members of the Soviet Army in the West to the Soviet Union (although it often included former soldiers of Russian Empire or Russian Republic, who did not have Soviet citizenship) after World War II. While forced repatriation focused on Soviet Armed Forces POWs of Germany and Russian Liberation Army members, it included many other people under Allied control. Refoulement, the forced repatriation of people in danger of persecution, is a human rights violation and breach of international law.[1] Thus Operation Keelhaul would have been called a war crime under modern international humanitarian law, especially in regards to the many civilians forced into Soviet work camps, many of whom had never been Soviet citizens, having fled Russia before the end of the Russian Civil War.[2]