Russians who provide signatures to get Boris Nadezhdin on the ballot are required to provide their full names and passport details — essentially a ready-made list of citizens who oppose the war. Will the Russian government use this information to chastise or otherwise punish individuals who sign their names?
Will resolve to “YES” or “NO” based on reporting in the New York Times. Will resolve to “NO” if Nadezhdin is elected and successfully takes office. N/A if no information is available by December 31, 2025
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1.00@ProjectVictory You’re absolutely right. That is how is should resolve, but as an American, I have limited ways of determining whether reprisals have taken place against individuals in Russia, therefore I must rely on trusted sources of information. Because I trust the journalistic standards at the New York Times, if their investigative reporting determines that no reprisals took place, I will resolve to “NO.” Does that make sense to you?
@ProjectVictory I updated the description to also include “NO” based on NYT reporting, but I have low confidence that the absence of reprisal will be a big enough story to report.
@suzumebatchi This is an interesting question, but I agree the resolution criteria seem strange. Perhaps something like "Resolves YES if reputable Western media report [at least one case of?] harassment/punishment, NO if they don't"? I mean, if there are reports by the BBC or WP which aren't picked up by the NYT, this should be enough. As it is, it seems that "Yes" would be a completely safe bet unless you expect Nadezhdin to win...