What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)
Basic
4
Ṁ2652030
95%
As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100
95%
The news originated in a for-profit company
88%
It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science
85%
Hanson first heard it July or August 2024
64%
It's about ems being easy
5%
It's about AGI being hard
3%
Hanson made it up
@RobinHanson recently tweeted
> I have heard reports that I can’t make public updating me to guess ems are more likely to arrive first, before full cheap human level AGI.
What did Hanson see? I will resolve Yes/No when something becomes pretty clear to me, might resolve N/A to not lock up mana.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Robin Hanson ever be uploaded?
40% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
70% chance
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
41% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
66% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?
76% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038
16% chance
Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
92% chance
Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?
4% chance