South Africa had a presidential election on 29 May 2024. No party won a majority so the country must be governed by a coalition. The next scheduled election is in 2029, but there are a couple of ways one could happen earlier.
If no coalition forms in time, there will be another election in 2024.
If the coalition government dissolves later, there might be an early election.
South Africa does have "municipal" elections, the next of which is in 2026. These won't count. I will only count elections where
the presidency is at stake
there is a public vote (so for example the parliament choosing a new president without a full election first doesn't count)
I will not trade in this market.
Related questions
As the country navigates this new political terrain, several scenarios could lead to an early election before the next scheduled one in 2029. This article explores the potential outcomes and factors that could influence the timing of the next presidential election in South Africa. Let's put slope next to everyone in every free time!
Whoa, I just checked the constitution. This is the first time I'm hearing that the National Assembly dissolves if they can't elect a President. Why have none of the political analysts been talking about this?
@moyamo Soo they either have to make to make a coalition in 2 weeks or everyone gets ground in to Soylent green?
@CalebRudnick I'm not sure. I don't know if this clause applies. I don't know if "there is a vacancy in the office of the President". I think Cyril Ramaphosa is still the "President" and not the "Acting President". However, if the National Assembly has a vote of no confidence against Cyril, he is removed and then if the National Assembly can't elect a new President after 30 days, I'm pretty sure this clause applies.
@moyamo it's never happened before, the African National Congress has always had a comfortable majority.
@CalebRudnick So I'm pretty sure if parliament votes there will be a President (even if it's a minority government). I think this clause is triggered only if parliament is so dysfunctional that they can't get a vote for the President in 30 days after the President resigns, dies or is removed by a vote of no confidence.
I heard somewhere that a quorum in parliament is only 30% (which the ANC has by itself). So it would probably require intentional sabotage for this to happen.
@moyamo there are no runoffs in votes that take place in Parliaments. That's not how parliamentary systems work.
@BrunoParga https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/index.php/site/q/03lv02039/04lv02046/05lv02047/06lv02065/07lv02084/08lv02089.htm See Section 6. Part of the procedure is a run-off.
@BrunoParga That was from the Interim constitution I think. But it's the same in the current constitution. See Section 7 https://www.gov.za/documents/constitution/constitution-republic-south-africa-1996-schedule-3-election-procedures-07#6