Will Matt Gaetz be Donald Trump's first Attorney General?
Plus
86
Ṁ20k2025
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Refers to the first person in Trump's second term who is nominated, confirmed by the Senate, and appointed to the post, or who receives a recess appointment.
I may push the close date back if needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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A friend shared this short anti-Gaetz post with the commentary: "Uh... so right-wing editor/Meghan McCain's husband/Fox News contributor Ben Domenech has declared, prosecuted, and possibly won the war on the Matt Gaetz nomination in a single devastating salvo."
bought Ṁ100 NO from 45% to 41%
bought Ṁ50 YES from 39% to 42%
bought Ṁ50 NO from 39% to 38%
This is one of the few times where I feel [Aumann's agreement theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem) working.
I did not expect it to be this low and now don't feel confident moving this above 30%
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