Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
Basic
38
Ṁ2.0kNov 13
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
this market resolves yes if 538 indicates aggregated polling in favor of the correct winner of the election.
Ie. If 538 says Trump has 50.1% chance of winning and Trump wins (and vice versa for Biden), this market resolves yes
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@SamBogerd I’m literally going to go off there probability dashboard for who will be president. So I’m assuming the answer to your question is the model rather than the aggregate polling…not sure they differentiate the two
Related questions
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of August?
88% chance
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
71% chance
Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?
70% chance
How many times will 538's election model change its predicted winner between today (25 Jun) and the election?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
58% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Wisconsin polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
How confident will 538's final 2024 presidential election forecast be?
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
57% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September?
82% chance