um this is free mana for whoever wants to do the math haha

the 538 predictions are still only available to payed subscribers right? Otherwise I might do it

Are there specific Manifold markets you'll be looking at for each state? Say, the one with the most mana in it?

How will you determine which was more accurate?

I'd like to know this too. I'm presuming it's who's closer to the EV count? But it could be states won who knows

Let's go with probabilities 1 week before the election, Briar score across all 50 states.

Perhaps a sobering reminder to some Yes holders.

@vitamind clearly you haven't seen the strange 538 model this year

538 also has access to Manifold! ;-)

On the contrary, I think that the fact that Manifold has access to 538 should generally make Yes probability go up. Even if it didn't quite pan out that way in 2020.

That said, I think Yes being at 65% or maybe 70%in the future is a bit overconfident

@StarkLN 538 in 2020/2022 is very different from whatever 538 in 2024 is doing

In what way do you think? I mean the model, not the actual predictions. I would agree that certain factors have thrown a wrench in the model, like it predicting that RFK is actually going to get a significant chunk of the vote.

@StarkLN for one, the model is created based on G. Elliot's philosophy, rather than Nate Silver

@nikki And what would that be, for those of us who don't know (including myself somewhat)?

Additionally, I wouldn't forecast Manifold to have a 2/3 chance of beating any other model either as a heuristic. I think the market is good in the ~40-55% range

@StarkLN https://stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/Harvard_Data_Science_Review.pdf

Bayesianism is not a good way to model tail events

@nikki I think I asked the wrong question. It would be better to ask: in what ways do Elliot's thinking majorly differ from Nate Silver's in a way that you think hurts the model. I didn't keep up with the Nate Silver Elliot Morris twitter stuff + it looks like most of it has been deleted by now.

With 538 slowly closing its doors, this looks more likely than it did a year ago.

538 has several models --- which one will you use?

@LarsDoucet I would advocate for "whatever the default model is displayed to a new visitor to the site", but would be nice to get that confirmed @IsaacKing.

Yeah, I was planning on the default model.

@IsaacKing What probability would you say 538 had given for a state it predicted to be ">99%" likely to have a particular outcome?

@BoltonBailey keep it simple and call it 99.5

Interesting to consider how manipulable this market is. With 538-betters being profitable this last cycle, I might expect prices to be very close to 538 the day before the election. A coalition could attempt to match the manifold predictions to the 538 predictions closely and then make a single big bet on a very likely state which would then dominate the Brier score.

How will accuracy be measured?

@JakobBrunker Note this comment in a similar market by the same creator.