If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
Mini
8
Ṁ1102026
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026. If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES. If not, this market resolves NO.
If Trump is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
Companion market:
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
🗳️Who would Manifold vote for over both Trump AND Biden in 1-on-1 presidential elections? [ADD RESPONSES]
Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?
If Biden wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
52% chance
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election? [RESOLVES BY %]
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
58% chance
On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?
44% chance
Will Manifold believe that Biden performed better at the second presidential debate than at the first one?
On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?
61% chance