Must be a REAL LIVING PERSON that the majority of Manifold users think can defeat both Biden in a 1-1 election, and Trump in a 1-1 election.
Will be resolved by a poll for each option to decide if they'd win the mock election(s)
Inspired by @GG 's market: /GG/is-there-anyone-who-could-defeat-bi
1,000
3.00@chaos Brilliant but unqualified due to citizenship (he's a natural-born Canadian and a naturalized Brit).
@strutheo do you plan doing separate polls for beating Trump and beating Biden, or only a poll with a question like « would you vote for X in a 1-1 election both if against Trump and if against Biden » ?
@Mich ill combine them into one poll, still figuring out exact wording , probably like ' would you vote for this person in a 1-1 vs biden, AND a 1-1 vs trump'
Pros for Manifold: Very rationally and scientifically minded, extremely dedicated to his ethical code, prominent in Effective Altruism movement, good writer
Cons for Manifold: His moral circle is so beyond the Overton Window that typical users might find his conclusions too extreme or even unhinged e.g. his agnosticism on whether climate change is good or bad due to effects on wild invertebrate suffering
Why is Hillary trading so high while Bernie and AOC are trading so low? I thought Manifold had a strong academic and thus leftist bias? Also isn't Harris basically just Biden but younger and more competent, yet for some reason she's trading really low too?
@strutheo tbh the anti-Trump leaning is so strong this is basically just a 'who would win against Biden' market haha
@TheAllMemeingEye Harris isn't particularly competent (her presidential campaign crashed and burned mostly because she's a terrible politician, and rumors say the biden admin stopped trying to give her stuff to manage because she can't actually handle stuff well). And Bernie/AOC are probably too far left even for the average manifoldian.
@ShakedKoplewitz Lmao Bernie/AOC are centrist by European standards, but I get your point, Manifold is mostly Bay Area / NYC
@ShakedKoplewitz Why was Harris chosen for Biden's VP if she's so incompetent? Surely there are also competent POC centrist politicians he could've chosen instead if that's so?
@TheAllMemeingEye despite what you see on paper, i def get the sense ppl do not like her, hard to pinpoint exactly why. true for both my dem friends and rep friends.
@TheAllMemeingEye Biden backed himself into a corner promising to nominate a woman while also feeling pressured to nominate a Black candidate. This more or less narrowed the field to her and Susan Rice. It was felt that Rice's Benghazi history was a liability (fairly or not) and besides that, nepotism may have played a role owing to Harris's prior friendship with Biden's deceased son.
@ShakedKoplewitz AOC is quite brilliant but certainly far to the left of the average Manifolder (including me).
@TheAllMemeingEye They are not "centrist by european standards". They're still pretty far-left (the amounts they advocate spending on their programs are way higher than anything any european country spends).
@TheAllMemeingEye DSA supporters like to imagine that they are within the norm of liberal European politics, but this isn't really true. Bernie Sanders, for example, often compared his views to the Danish system, but his opinion that "billionaires shouldn't exist" is not a mainstream view in Denmark. AOC's advocacy of modern monetary theory and extreme spending programs, likewise. These are really straight socialist views, which are left-wing in any country.
@HarrisonNathan AOC has honestly gotten a lot better in recent years, but when she was starting out she was saying legit crackpot things. ("The reason why unemployment is so low is because everyone is working two or three jobs.") She still slips up from time to time, but by and large she's learned when to shut up and listen. She might make a good president or speaker in 10, 20, 30 years. But she's not even slightly ready now.
Also, re: "centrist in Europe", let me just remind everyone that Europe went through like a decade and a half of austerity in the wake of 2008, while the US had two massive rounds of stimulus for '08 and for Covid. Centrist in Europe is a more racist Paul Ryan who really likes healthcare. C'mon now.