Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
Standard
23
แน773Nov 12
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of FiveThirtyEight. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?
48% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
42% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
45% chance
Will Manifold or FiveThirtyEight be more confident about the actual winner of the 2024 US presidential election?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
67% chance
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
54% chance