Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
Plus
23
แน773Nov 12
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
On the eve of election day, I will note down probabilities from the most popular Manifold market for each state's presidential, senate, and house election outcomes, as well as those of FiveThirtyEight. Territories are excluded. Races for which either lacks predictions will be excluded. Races that lack a market with at least 10 traders will also be excluded. Resolves YES iff Manifold's predictions have a better Brier score.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?
8% chance
Will Selzer out-predict FiveThirtyEight in the 2024 Iowa presidential election?
2% chance
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
3% chance
How Many States Will Manifold Correctly Predict During the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
76% chance
Will Manifold correctly call every state and district in the 2024 election? If not, how many do we get wrong?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
48% chance