CNalysis (the only state legislative model I'm aware of) gives him a 47% chance.

He has a better chance than I thought. If someone bribes me I will reveal my information.

I hope he makes it, and think it would be good for Florida as well as the world – but >60% seemed a bit high.

Help me decide whether I should donate: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-donate-2k-to-jay-shoosters-f

Go Jay!