Justin Murphy predicts I'll reconvert to Christianity: https://twitter.com/jmrphy/status/1741150091874902347
For the purposes of this market (based on Justin's description), it cannot be liberal Christianity, it has to be a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism.
edit: Made this before seeing someone else beat me to it: https://manifold.markets/jacobsaysheyyy/will-aella-revert-to-christianity-w?r=amFjb2JzYXlzaGV5eXk
@JustinMurphy I put an order for 100k no at 50% and at 75%. we can talk about price if you want, and i could do bigger trades than that to, but I'd have to sell some other stuff first
While researching for this question, I came across this interesting snippet in a 2022 report from the Pew Research Center.
Most people don’t change their religious identity. But among those who do, the switch typically happens between the ages of 15 and 29. That is why this report focuses on switching among young Americans.
However, since the rise of the “nones” began in the 1990s, a pattern has emerged in which a measurable share of adults ages 30 to 65 also disaffiliate from Christianity. [...]
[...] Switching by religiously unaffiliated, older Americans into Christianity is not modeled in the projections because there is no clear trend in this direction.
I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons.
Yeah, the farther the deadline the higher the probability of the event occuring before the deadline. I didn't expect you to bet the other years up to 5%, but 1% for 2027 and 5% for 2028 looks strange. It's odd for the markets to conclude so much of the probability density is concentrated in 2028.
My sense of honesty compels me to remind you that I think you're wrong about this question and am encouraging you to make similaroy bad bets on the other question so I can profit more off you even sooner.
My comment that started this thread linked to a question that is effectively the same question but for each year from 2024 through 2027. /HankyUSA/will-aella-convert-to-sexually-cons
Okay. Perhaps I am being overly precise. The amount I've bet on this definitely has me giving it more attention than other traders probably care to give it.
Oh lol I learned a little bit about the Less Wrong blog, rationality, polyamory, etc. and it’s comically immature. It’s also a cult. This bet is obviously going to read out positively, given enough time, as cults are inherently unstable. The biggest risk to this market is that it occurs in 2029+, but like, ~4 years is a long time.
But putting aside this market, read a bit more about this ‘rationality’ philosophy. It’s hilarious.
Ok, what do you think the right base rate is for this market then ?
Also, keep in mind the math: at 95% odds, you’re up/down is +5.2% / -100% for ‘No’, or +2000% / -100% for ‘Yes’. The question is about a single persons personal view over 4 years. It’s genuinely not rational to bet on ‘No’ at 95% odds, almost no matter what the specific scenarios are. Like the IRR over 4 years is basically 0 with 100% downside risk. Even Aella should be putting money on ‘Yes’ as a rationalist lol
I'm sorry. I don't understand investment lingo. I don't know what an up/down is and didn't follow your math. I'm not demanding an explanation; I'm just letting you know that I don't understand you. My betting strategy is not perfect, but it is simple. Consider the probability of the event. If the probability according to the market is lower than what I think the actual probability is, then buy YES shares or sell NO shares. If the probability according to the market is higher than what I think the actual probability is, then buy NO shares or sell YES shares. Try not to bet more than I can afford to lose.
I'm trying to reason about the probability that Aella, an atheist, will convert to "a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism" by the end of 2028, which is about four years away. I think a very reasonable starting point would be to ask what percent of atheists converted to "a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism" in the past four years. I asked a question that is as relevant as it is specific. I did not ask "for the base rate of people with relatively extreme views changing their mind".
I just asked perplexity / chatgpt your ‘rate of atheists converting’ question and there was no answer. I assumed your question was rhetorical, and I’m not surprised there is no evidence-backed result out there (that I can find).
So without being able to google the answer specifically, I’m just looking at this as a bet on human behavior, and the amount that I’m putting at risk relative to the amount made for getting it right. In plain English, when the odds are like 95%, you don’t really make much when you’re right, but still lose your entire investment when wrong. And just from basic personal experience, people are weird and do unexpected things all the time. I would never give 95% odds to someone doing/not doing something over multiple years.
Either way - no harm in disagreeing! Best of luck