Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Crystal

148

Ṁ110k

2027

66%

chance

ALL

My partner Nate and I just broke up due to me wanting kids and him not wanting them. Our relationship was pretty good before this and he estimates wanting marriage/life partner type thing with me chance at 70% in the world where I also didn't want kids.

He hasn't been down for any arrangement I've proposed that involve kids and him in any way so far.

I'm devastated and really want to get back with him, but I also definitely want kids.

Will something change in the next 3 years (or by mid August 2027) where somehow we end up seriously or primarily dating again? Any circumstance that involves us getting back together seriously counts.

Update 2024-26-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Current status:
- We are now dating again, but it is not serious or primary.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Well we are now dating again, but I'm not sure I would describe it as serious or primary

sold Ṁ176 NO

@Aella Happy for you!

@Aella what changed?

bought Ṁ50 YES at 55%

boughtṀ10,000YES

@RickiHeicklen MNPI?

“No more then 5% in one market.” - Mr. Wonderful

Would it be possible for you to have kids with someone else and to be seriously dating him at the same time? Is he specifically not willing to co-parent? Is it a sort of "stepdad situation" where he'd want to date you seriously if you had kids but not to parent them?

Probably not betting yet because these odds can be quite volatile right after a breakup.

@Aella if I were Nate, AnnieL's option would change my mind.

I also definitely want kids.

Could you estimate the % of this "definitely" ?

How definitely is "definitely" ?

Are his views on kids driven by his estimation of their chances to actually grow up ?

I think if that's involved I would buy no up to like 10%, unless serious progress on alignment / delaying ASI happens.

Sorry to hear that, for what it's worth.

bought Ṁ5 NO

What changed to make you want kids or him not? (And what would have to change to go back?)

sold Ṁ48 NO

What does "get back together" mean in this context? Primary relationship or just any sexual relationship?

primary

Feel free to answer either none or a subset of these questions, though I think they will help close the info gap between insiders and the Manifold crowd, and encourage people to bet larger/more:

I am guessing his preferences regarding kids have been stable for a long time. What has changed now that you two have decided to actually break up?
Are you still dating each other unseriously?
What are your personal expectations about the future?
- Do you think it's possible he changes his mind about wanting kids?
- Do you think it's possible you could get back with him even if he doesn't end up changing his mind?
The way you are using the term primary, would getting back together require you to see each other as viable long term life partners, or could it happen by default if you two are only dating each other?

What arrangements did you suggest?

What the.. Who tracks the outcome of this if i put money on it lmao

The market creator. Aella is trustworthy here, I think!

Oh wow so it is tricky in some cases? Thank you for clarifying I'm new to this, but it's super interesting lol

You are rich bruh why don't you bet in real life? 🤣

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