The market resolves YES if I lose my virginity before the closing time. Otherwise, it resolved NO.
I will not trade in this market so I have no incentive to lie. 'Losing my virginity' is essentially sexual intimacy with another person(s). I'll use my own judgement but will be somewhat lenient.
I'm willing to answer most questions in the comments as long as they aren't too personal, since I know this is quite a vague market without further details. I've already answered several questions so I encourage you to scroll down before betting!
Some general questions:
What is your age, gender, and sexual/romantic orientation?
What part of the world do you live in?
What is the size, gender balance, and relationship success rate of your friendship group?
Are you actively attempting to find someone, or planning to in the near future?
What dating methods do you intend to use?
What are your political views e.g. in terms of economics, government, and progressivism (particularly gender equality)?
What are your free-time hobbies, and what topics do you enjoy chatting about, both for small talk and deep discussions?
Do you have any neurodivergence?
Do you find it difficult to enjoy the company of, compassionately care about, and trust people you meet?
Do any you have a date-me-doc? e.g. https://dateme.directory/
These questions vastly affect the odds in my opinion
Good luck :)
Do any you have a date-me-doc? e.g. https://dateme.directory/
Would it (just the presence of it) increase or decrease your estimated odds?
Great questions actually! I might be a bit vague on some of the answers for privacy reasons but I'll do my best. Apologies in advance for the very long reply.
I live in the UK, female, late teens/early 20s, I guess bi would be the best way to describe my orientation.
My friend group is probably 50/40/10 split between male/female/non-binary. Most have been in several relationships - obviously not all worked out but many lasted several years. Not sure how sexual any got since that's not something I discuss with most people. Most of my friends are online but there's maybe around 10 I talk to on a regular basis.
I'm not actively going around advertising "hey I need a partner" but I am still seeking it, and if someone I'm interested in asked for a romantic relationship then I'd be very likely to engage. I think the ideal relationship for me would be someone that I've been friends with for a while already, and that I know pretty well, and just having it kind of naturally turn into something more. On the other side, though, I think in a year or two I might gain the confidence to try dating apps and socialising in public if I don't already have a partner by then.
If I had to put myself in a 'political group' then I'm definitely left leaning, like I think everyone deserves rights regardless of gender/race/religion/orientation/etc and I think that, yes the economy is important, but society as a whole and comfortable living should absolutely be prioritised. I feel like I worded this answer poorly so feel free to ask anything further if you wish.
As for hobbies, I love a nice balance of playing a bunch of different games, listening to music (mainly songs that are lyrical/technical, and/or deep/meaningful), and just.. walking around and enjoying nature. As long as I have a partner with similar interests we could absolutely talk about that all day. As for more deep conversations, I prefer listening to whatever the other person wants to talk about, and engaging with that - instead of trying to come up with stuff myself.
I am neurodivergent so I do naturally gravitate to other people who also are.
When there's someone I really care about, I absolutely love them and their company regardless of what it is exactly we're doing. However, when I'm first meeting people, I do have some level of trust issues because of past experiences. So passing that barrier is hard, but it's great when I do get past it.
I hadn't actually heard of date-me-docs until this comment, not quite ready to fully put myself out there like that but in future I think I will indeed look into it.
Thanks for the detailed answer :)
Some broad observations:
You are arguably near the age where most of us physically and mentally peak, and where people of the same age are most likely to have not yet been taken, but your suitable age dating range is narrower (see https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/314:_Dating_Pools)
Assuming you are cisgender, dynamic imbalances in standards/preferences between the genders means being female might make it significantly easier to technically get a relationship if you are desperate, but it will likely be equally hard as for men to get an actually good relationship (an analogy I once heard was "for men dating is like dying of thirst while lost in the desert, for women it is like dying of thirst while castaway in a saltwater ocean")
In an ideal society being bi would significantly boost chances by increasing number of potential matches, but I have heard from others that there is a culture of stronger biphobic stigma in lesbian women than in straight men, so the advantage might be mostly cancelled out
Although not perfect, the UK is a nation with relatively progressive cultural attitudes and reasonably high population density, both helpful for relationships
Your friendship group seems to be of a good size (indicating good social skills), gender balance (preventing echo-chambering), and relationship success rate (indicating you getting reasonable advice from them)
Waiting for others to initiate and only looking within your existing friendship group may significantly limit potential relationship opportunities, but if as you say you'll switch to a more proactive strategy well within the market timeframe then the impact is much lessened
It sounds like you likely don't have any major unhinged red flag beliefs/hobbies/interests, which is a plus
Whether your neurodivergence is a blessing or a curse might depend heavily on which type it is and the severity, high-functioning autism may actually help you due to there being way more autistic men than women, but something like paranoid schizophrenia would be much more of a challenge
As long as you openly communicate about it, the minor trust issues hopefully shouldn't put too many people off
Given there weren't major problems with any of the checked factors, I think the odds are fairly high, maybe 60-80% at a rough guess
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I'm not convinced. There are a lot of folk who will perform huge lies for the applaud of strangers, you don't even have to know them, you could just wake up one morning needing a dopamine hit and resolve the market yes because of some flawed assumption that this would win you some kind of depraved affirmation of life. I want DNA evidence.