By the end of 2024, will at least 2 MIRI researchers publicly consider the Infra-Bayesianism agenda to have contributed substantially to solving the alignment problem?
Plus
14
Ṁ919Dec 31
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?
59% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?
23% chance
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
34% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Tetraspace have published a research paper on AI alignment by March 1, 2025?
26% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
31% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
5% chance