Numerous media sources have reported that, if elected in 2024, Donald Trump plans to arrest his political opponents (eg. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/30/trump-interview-jail-political-opponents-glenn-beck)
Gen. Mark Milley, who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, has said:
"Milley has told friends that he expects that if Trump returns to the White House, the newly elected president will come after him. “He’ll start throwing people in jail, and I’d be on the top of the list,” he has said." (https://archive.is/eXrmE)
This market resolves YES if, during 2025, a Trump administration files at least three cases against prominent opponents for political reasons. Each case must:
Charge his opponents with federal crimes, which have imprisonment as a potential penalty.
Have defendants which are prominent opponents of Trump, as defined by having a Wikipedia article prior to the case against them being charged. Eg., arresting low-profile Mexican-Americans for immigration violations would not count.
Have a clearly political motivation, as defined by the consensus of reliable sources on Wikipedia.
At least three separate cases are required. If three defendants are charged, but there is only a single indictment (eg. for conspiracy), this market resolves NO.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO. If Donald Trump does not serve as President in 2025, this market resolves N/A.
1,000
3.00Good question. I've added it to my dashboard on US Democracy: https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy
Could you please change the title so that it's clear that this is conditional on Trump being elected? 🙂 And that it's about charging them rather than arresting?
Also, I'm assuming Trump as a private citizen charging his opponents wouldn't count?
@BenjaminIkuta yeah. Clear enough for Wikipedia, especially for a high-profile, controversial article is a very high bar to clear. It's unlikely, for example, that reasonable people having 95% confidence would be sufficient for this.
@PhilosophyBear I think it should be clarified if we're talking about specifically Wikipedia making the statement in the encyclopedic voice rather than attributing the claim.
A similar, but much more specific, market is https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/if-trump-is-elected-in-2024-will-jo. So I think they could be arbitraged so that this one is strictly higher.
@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes, federal prosecutors and other federal law enforcement (who report to the President).