Resolves yes if and when Donald Trump goes to prison.
@DaisyWelham Market maker confirmed no (house arrest does not count) in a comment lower down.
@AlfonsoRodriguez well, if he dies I guess this would resolve as NO, no matter how much earlier than 2060 it is…
How is this 20% https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
While this question implies 54% ❤
@jameso I think this market implies he will go to a physical jail. The other market takes any form of incarceration, such as house arrest.
@Conflux That would matter a lot for real money markets, but I don't think most people here are thinking about the time value of mana. Otherwise no one would bet on whether AI wipes out humanity by 2100.
https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th
@MatthewLichti well, those markets don't have any tether to reality. This one does, in that you profit if it resolves YES, but if it resolves NO you likely won't profit for decades
@Conflux Why do you think this market is more tethered to reality? There's almost no money in this market. Even betting $1 causes a large price shift. No one is betting $1 based on calculations of what that $1 will be worth in 5 to 10 years. I'll miss out on $0.25 worth of interest I would have gotten if I invested in Mana treasury bonds.
@MatthewLichti some people care about their mana! This one is more tethered to reality because there's a chance it pays out. The AI market will either resolve NO in 2100 or YES if everyone's dead - neither of which matters
@Conflux I don't think anyone cares enough about such tiny amounts of Mana to bet strategically. There are other markets where you can bet enough for the amount you win or lose to have meaning, but this is not one of them.
@MatthewLichti well, I disagree - I think people do try to "win the game of Manifold" by increasing their amount of mana
@Conflux Why would they even bother betting on really illiquid markets? It's a lot of time investment for almost no mana.
@Joshua Yes. I throw in 20 mana into an illiquid market because I think the current market probability is wrong. I don't actually care about winning 20 mana if I'm right because that's $0.20.