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What won't happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
51
Ṁ5.3k2026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
87%
Ukraine joins Nato
74%
Evergrande liquidation completed
53%
A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.
49%
Donald Trump becomes US president again
46%
Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro
37%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married
33%
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher
15%
GPT-5 released
Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.
Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.
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@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market
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36% chance