🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
77
Ṁ9305
2029
34%
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
32%
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
50%
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
78%
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
77%
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
61%
Putin still leader of Russia
79%
Xi still leader of China
78%
New Pope after Francis
10%
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
61%
Family Guy has ended
44%
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
28%
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
63%
Charles still King of UK
58%
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
42%
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
17%
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
15%
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
68%
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
29%
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
77%
1200 or more official pokemon

📋GUIDELINES (incomplete)

  • I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

  • All resolutions require proof posted as a comment for me to resolve.

  • Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.

  • Please keep self-referential answers like 'will this market reach X answers' to a minimum, although I might personally add a few

🔎Specific Rules

  • Crypto and Stock prices will be determined by Google

  • Celebrity status is determined by Manifold if I think it is unclear. At the end of the month, a poll will be run to determine the resolution of those questions.

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reposted

upgraded to basic

reposted

Aww, this has been N/A'd.

I'm so petty that when the wave of paperclips is reaching me, my last thought is guaranteed to be "I told you so, @strutheo " 😛

@BrunoParga just because i dont want to take up one of 100 slots with 0% for 4 years </3

i'd leave it otherwise!

@BrunoParga lol you have my permission to curse my name in your final moments, and i will feel very embarrassed if it happens

@strutheo I'm actually confused about that - does it work? Like, does N/Aing a question free up its slot?

@BrunoParga yes , after the january market broke the site, they made it so it is only 100 active questions for each MC market. so now there is another spot to add a question here

Charles still King of UK

King Charles diagnosed with cancer and will postpone public-facing duties while undergoing treatment, Buckingham Palace says

reposted

arbitrage opportunity incoming

@CC4 never mind guys no Arbitrage

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

Would you count this as ongoing if there's a ceasefire but no formal peace treaty? (Similar to North Korea and South Korea today)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 good question - if a situation like korea arises i might poll manifold if they think the war is still going or not, since that is a bit of a technicality.

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

I personally dislike options like this. Doesn't feel in line with "ooo we don't know when but will it happen before 2028"? There are options like this in most of your grab bags (I feel the same in all of them), if others like them that's fine just my 2 cents

@Tumbles i accept the feedback, its true theyre much less fun. will focus on the better ones

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

To be clear, a paper just needs to be published about one in a peer reviewed journal?

@Tumbles a replication that has gone through the peer review process of a scientific journal

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