How old will the first Catholic pope after Francis be at election?
7
240Ṁ1412070
1D
1W
1M
ALL
12%
younger than 60
10%
60-65
14%
65-70
64%
70 or older
Intervals are left-closed right-open, e.g. if he's elected on his 65th birthday it resolves "65-70" and if he's elected the day before it resolves "60-65", where his birthday is based on the midnight of whatever time zone he was born in and the election day is based on the "habemus papam" announcement in the Vatican time zone. (In case the "habemus papam" announcement straddles the Vatican midnight of his 60th or 65th or 70th birthday, I will flip a coin.)
Resolves N/A if no new pope has been elected at the market closing time
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will Pope Francis live to see the Ides of March 2026?
40% chance
When will the current pope (fransis) die
Will Pope Francis pass away before the end of March 2025?
43% chance
Who will be elected the next Pope after Francis (Jorge Bergoglio)?
Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
89% chance
Will Pope Francis abdicate?
16% chance
Who will succeed pope Francis as pope?
Will Pope Francis live to see the Ides of March?
70% chance
In which year will Pope Francis cease to be Pope?