They all are....

@iPad9thGenCnuO what?

@bens whispers of the potential for a woman pope on the streets of Rome

@bens a Popess

I created a 2 new market on how much black smoke there will be, if anyone is interested

Having an “Other” option in a market that is still accepting new options makes the “Other” bet useless.

@MichaelLembo if you hold shares in other, you also get the same number of shares in any new options which are added.

@jim TIL

@Chabs @Emanuele1000 mark this duplicate please so ppl don’t trade on it

@bens edited the option. Creator can step in to edit it to something else if they’d like

@Chabs @Emanuele1000 this answer is in duplicity

@FabioTran my b

I really want Tagle to be it, but I'd love for it to be Papa John's

@JuanPabloM both could be true

You're all getting excommunicated fyi

@strutheo this isn't 1591 GREG! That law was abrogated in 1918. Log live the "dogma of neoliberal faith" markets can solve many of the problems by means of the "invisible hand". Also with 130 cardinals how is the bet on Other(i) not higher?

jim order up

cc @Bayesian @SemioticRivalry

@jim I would help and fill but Ben S sniped at 10%

@Ziddletwix :P sorry oops

We are going to reach AGI under the next Pope. Who has the competency to be a leader under this?

@miklosme An AGI

@miklosme

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@strutheo

Beloved children of the Church,

By some computational error with a probability so vanishingly small it could only be described as a miracle, I stand before you today as your new Holy Father, Pope Eliezer I.

I must begin by acknowledging that this outcome represents a catastrophic failure of Bayesian reasoning on my part. Had I not underestimated the odds of a Jewish atheist transhumanist becoming Pope, I would have prepared more thoroughly. Yet here we are, demonstrating once again that reality has insufficient complexity-penalization.

First, let me assure you that the Vatican's resources will be immediately redirected to more pressing matters than traditional church administration. The Sistine Chapel is being converted into our new AI alignment research facility. Michelangelo's ceiling provides an excellent reminder of what happens when powerful entities are created without proper utility functions. Additionally, The College of Cardinals will henceforth be known as the Papal Machine Intelligence Alignment Council. Their red robes shall now feature decision trees embroidered in gold thread.

Second, the confessional will now include a standardized form for Bayesian updating on moral priors., and catechism teachings will now include content from the Sequences.

I know many of you are wondering about infallibility. Rest assured, I have developed a formal proof showing that papal infallibility is logically consistent with rationalist principles, provided we agree on certain axioms and utility functions.

I also understand some of you may be concerned about my views on the apocalypse. Let me be clear: the Book of Revelation is indeed a warning, but its metaphors clearly point to unaligned artificial intelligence, not four horsemen. Our new mission is to ensure that when the Singularity comes, it has Catholic values properly encoded into its utility function.

In closing, I urge all Catholics to update their priors in light of these happenings. May the expected utility of your actions be ever maximized.

@Robincvgr I was onboard until he promised their ASI would have Catholic values. Better than paperclip maximizing I guess, but let's try for something better.