Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of 2028?
55
2029
<1%
1-5%
5-10%
10-25%
>25%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
48% chance
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
63% chance
Will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire with an intended duration of at least 28 days before October 1st, 2025?
52% chance
If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?
Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2025?
63% chance
If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.44
If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?
4.67
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
47% chance
Will the war in Ukraine end before 2027?
82% chance