FAQ:

Why are so many answers getting disqualified? What were they?

They were because a troll (now banned) submitted answers and then edited them to completely different answers, including many duplicates. As a result, those answers had to be disqualified, which means they are guaranteed to resolve NO. (This market type doesn't allow N/A-ing specific answers unfortunately.)

I added this as a pinned comment to replace the previous 3 pinned comments that were much more confusing for people to understand.

Turns out Manifold has a bug where the unpin button sometimes doesn't work. Guess we have 4 pinned comments now.

Can the disqualified options at least be renamed, so we can get additional likely candidates like Doug Burgum included?

@TheAllMemeingEye That would be unfair to people who bet NO on the disqualified options.

Yeah disqualified options should not be edited, but new options can still be added.

I have a market on who will be on the shortlist, if you have ideas for people to add here I suggest putting them in there as a start:

Chef Jose Andres

Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman

Younkin would be a great VP choice for Trump because he is an outgoing governor with very deep pockets who could pick up the slack funding the campaign. He might even be willing to cover Trump's legal bills for a shot at being his heir apparent. We should assume the VP slot is for sale and rule out anyone who isn't a billionaire. This is basically what RFK Jr just did with Nicole Shanahan.

I don’t really understand the huge spread between Altman and the heads of the other labs competing to invent AGI. Dario, Danielle and Demis seem equally likely to be the face of god I assume many of you see when you look at Sam Altman.

@BTE I assume there is the broad perception that OpenAI will continue to lead progress toward AGI.

GPT-4 is no longer leading by a mile, if at all, so you might get the impression that things are neck and neck. But I think there's an expectation that OpenAI has more in the tank for their next model than the competition does, and will once again be substantially ahead once it comes out.

@BTE

Sergei Wiktorowitsch Karakajew

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Wiktorowitsch_Karakajew?wprov=sfla1

In case of russian nuclear tests he will be one of the responsible for the outcome.

@KongoLandwalker This guy is not winning TIME person of the year 😆

@benshindel tell the probability instead of absolute.

Would a specific persona of AI fall under “artificial intelligence “ or would it need a separate option to qualify? (“Claude” vs. “ChatGPT”)

Why are so many answers getting disqualified? What were they?

@HarrisonNathan Like random to the point of unrecognizable. In some cases blatant duplicates created maliciously by a user who has since been banned.

@BWC No they weren’t. The banned user came and changed several of the answers to be duplicates of other answers. I would not have eliminated an answer that either didn’t have a duplicate or started as something different. Happy to add back Zionists and the Palestinians are already up there.