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Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?
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Resolves YES if any part of Russian breaks off from the motherland and forms a new state, similar to what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by the end of 2024.
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https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw
@Treldman Correct, that would not count. This is about breaking off new states that stand alone. Chechnya would count for instance.
@jack Yes, it would require the creation of a wholly new state on territory that had been Russia. Luhansk and Crimea aren’t going to be come new independent states. Chechnya declaring autonomy/independence would count.
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