Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
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Jan 1
6%
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The war will be considered to have ended in 2024 if a ceasefire beginning in 2024 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2024. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

Worth a gamble on YES based upon recent statements made from both sides as well as the potential, albeit quite a long shot chance that the forthcoming election here in the US may spur the parties into action on brokering a ceasefire agreement.

bought Ṁ250 NO from 18% to 15%

Is there any way of knowing whether a ceasefire is temporary before it ceases?
Edit: nevermind

If an armistice is reached, do you have some kind of measure in mind for how substantial violations need to be for it to be considered broken?

How big a deal is it that Ukraine hacked the Russian IRS?

https://therecord.media/ukraine-intelligence-claims-attack-on-russia-tax-service

Taking yes bets

predicts NO

@njmkw you may wish to extend the close date to 1/1/2025

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw

This market is predicting WAY higher than the superforecaster prediction here

predicts NO

The War in Donbass didn't end, despite many ceasefire attempts, so I don't see why it would now.

@njmkw I think the close date for this should be extended to end of 2024.

@njmkw If the question is during 2024, why does it close 1.1.2024 and not 1.1.2025?

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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