Here's an Insight Prediction market, currently at 9-12%. https://insightprediction.com/m/248076/will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-by-june-30th-2024

Is there any way of knowing whether a ceasefire is temporary before it ceases?
Edit: nevermind

If an armistice is reached, do you have some kind of measure in mind for how substantial violations need to be for it to be considered broken?

How big a deal is it that Ukraine hacked the Russian IRS?

https://therecord.media/ukraine-intelligence-claims-attack-on-russia-tax-service

Taking yes bets

@njmkw you may wish to extend the close date to 1/1/2025

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/good-judgment-superforecasters?r=VHVtYmxlcw

This market is predicting WAY higher than the superforecaster prediction here

The War in Donbass didn't end, despite many ceasefire attempts, so I don't see why it would now.

@njmkw I think the close date for this should be extended to end of 2024.

@njmkw If the question is during 2024, why does it close 1.1.2024 and not 1.1.2025?

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition