1,000
3.00@traders after the price for 175 droped to 36 i opened a order at 50% (5000) 40% (10000) 30% (25000) 20% (50000) and 10% (100000) so there is a lot of liquidity now.
Let's be real here, 250 is unreachable. In the last day there's been, what, 20 new people coming in, compared to the 40 in the first 3 hours. As you can see the # of new traders decreases exponentially (I've seen maybe 1 or 2 new traders in the past 4 hours). Assuming the average rate is, let's give a highball estimate here, 5 people per day for the rest of the whole month, we get 100 new people, for a total of 200. Again, this is assuming 5 whole people per day - the last few days should end up having only 1 or 2 new traders a day.
@Gameknight There's definitely a decrease in traders after the initial period, but I don't think it's necessarily true that the last few days will have the lowest number of traders. A lot of markets have more trading activity when they're about to close because the outcomes are more sensitive, and those new traders who come to e.g. bet NO on the unreachable numbers can end up making lower numbers like 175 and 250 more likely.
@SisyphosDale I'll admit that's a factor I forgot to consider, but I still think that a 50-trader margin as calculated in my comment above is enough to account for it.
@Gameknight That's true, assuming the rate of 5 traders per day on average is correct the margin of 50-60 traders is a lot to be made up in the last few days, but that margin is pretty sensitive to the estimated traders per day. If it turns out there are e.g. 7 traders per day on average instead, that adds 30+ traders over the rest of December. I think 5 traders a day was a reasonable estimate, but I'm not confident 7 is unrealistically high.
@SisyphosDale I looked over the trade volume again - there's a pretty big gap between 19h and 13 h ago (which is around 12:00 AM and 6:00 AM), which reinforces an obvious conjecture that most users of this site live on the NA/SA continents or in Europe. This means that somewhere between a quarter and a half of the day is basically wasted, and "1 new trader every 4 hours" would not mean 6 traders a day, but rather somewhere between 3-4 a day. This was not accounted for in the previous calculation, and the two errors discussed in the thread (resolution rush and timezone demographics) likely roughly cancel each other out.
@Gameknight Yeah I also noticed some change in frequency during the day which is indeed probably because of overrepresented time zones on Manifold, but that also makes it difficult to extrapolate the rate of arrival from 4 hours. That said, 4 hours before your first comment does seem to have been a relatively busy period both days before that, so I don't think that's a source of bias. I'm still holding out to see how many new traders will arrive over the whole next day, but you might be right that the rate will be even lower than 5 a day, at least on average over the whole month.
@SisyphosDale "I'm still holding out to see how many new traders will arrive over the whole next day"
Same. Simply taking the data of the next day will remove timezone error by thinking with daily rates rather than hourly rates. I think it will be at most 6 people, probably 4 over the next day.
@Gameknight Yeah, it must have just been a slow period yesterday. You might still be right that the traders per day will go down over time, but 175 seems very likely now, and 250 isn't unlikely either.
@SisyphosDale Honestly I think the 250 is a coinflip between "this rate of new traders roughly level out at 7 a day" and "this rate of traders will continue to decrease until 1 new trader a day". I'm going to wait and observe for a few more days before I make a final decision on 250.
@Gameknight I agree it's closer to a coinflip than a likelyhood, the next few days will show how steep the decrease actually is.
@SisyphosDale +14 on dec 13, +7 on dec 14. if this halving trend continues 250 is a bust. Maybe even 175 is a bust. But I don't think it'll go down too far.
@Gameknight I agree that it probably won't go down too far. 175 only needs about 3 traders a day from now on, so that still seems very likely to me. We'll have to see where the number bottoms out, but I'm also expecting some days to be busier than others, so the "floor" rate is not necessarily the same as the average rate for the rest of the month. Still, I've sold my 250 for now until there's more data.
@Gameknight Yeah at the current rate 250 isn't in the cards, but the question is how stable the rate will be, 40% might be a reasonable probability of the rate increasing for some reason. Still, probably not something to bet on at this point.
@SisyphosDale I think the rate will speed up a lot near the end. Though that is with normal markets, everyone might be busy for new years.
@SisyphosDale ok actually maybe I was right previously
It has indeed slowed down to abt 2 new traders a day. This would require an avg of 10 traders a day for the rest of the month to get to 250, although 175 is definitely possible if the influx of traders spikes a little at the end of the month.
@Gameknight My first thought was that there should be some variance in the rate, so one day with 2 traders doesn't necessarily mean that that is the rate now, but yeah it hasn't turned around. Looks like even 175 isn't necessarily likely anymore.
@SisyphosDale Suddenly jumped by 4 overnight from 140 to 144. I think this is the start of the comeback for 175. I would sell my shares until at least tomorrow to see if the spike continues or returns to just one or two a day.