imo a good case for NO is that prediction markets are only accurate when ability to move the markets varies something like exponentially with prediction ability, whatever that means. im sure some people have thought about it and the math behind it neatly. but anyway, if there's a lottery and random people get rich for non-predictive-ability-reasons, they make bad bets elsewhere and make the site way less accurate. Like, yes, they technically provide more incentive for the good predictors to adjust back the price, but much better results happen when the good bettors get the greater share of the mana directly, rather than indirectly after the months it takes for markets to resolve

hahaha great timing I guess..?

I’m new. Could you explain whalebaits?

@arbitrary 'Whalebait' refers to markets that resolve based on how mana is spent. Here's an example:

https://manifold.markets/GordanKnott/mnwpm-310tell-me-something-chatgpt

There are many different forms, but generally if you can 'win' the market by spending more mana than everyone else then that market is whalebait

@Tumbles Thanks 🙏