Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
➕
Plus
497
Ṁ760k
in a few seconds
4%
Manifold’s average user base
89%
Humans
3%
BDSM
5%
Opossums
90%
Opposable thumbs
95%
Manhattan-like Project for AGI
16%
Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)
58%
Opposing Al (not ai)
97%
Genocide
98.4%
Hillbilly Capitalism
3%
Punk
3%
Opposing AI
2%
This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)
6%
We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)
81%
Time
10%
Nothing
17%
Michigan
7%
Al (Yankovic)
11%
Al (not ai)
92%
Baby

Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more Right-Wing (YES) or more Left-Wing (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market,

/Joshua/good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees (edit may 29: currently not true, but I believe it is being implemented currently).

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

The market will close every every week; See the close date to know on what day. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.

If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.

If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

See:

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Opossums

@Robincvgr isn't "opossum" just short for "opposable thumb"?

@Fion I've never heard that. I'm referring to the American marsupial

@Robincvgr isn't "marsupial" just short for "my hands are super prehensile"?

Either way, if opossums are left wing, opposable thumbs should be as well.

(I am just being silly btw)

Humans

@Robincvgr this is defo right-wing. Being left-wing the way we think of it in the WEIRD world is, well, WEIRD.

bought Ṁ10 Humans YES

@BrunoParga what's the WEIRD world?

@TheAllMemeingEye Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic. Covers the majority of the user base here, but not necessarily all of the population even in rich countries. And some elites in poor countries might be a partial fit as well.

Michigan

They voted for Trump didn't they? And relatively close trader balance. Surprised it's at such low odds

@TheAllMemeingEye All of their executive offices are controlled by Dems, their state senate is majority Dem, both of their US Senators are Dems. The state house and Trump are the only exceptions to that Dem strength right now

Opposing Al (not ai)

@Marnix is that putting an opossum somewhere near Al?

@BrunoParga i love to spel

@Marnix English spelling is hard... it can be learned throughout through tough thorough thought, though.

bought Ṁ50 Genocide NO

@KimberlyWilberLIgt pol pot, Stalin, mao, national socialism, Assad's baath party...

@ShakedKoplewitz gah this was supposed to be a reply to "genocide", not the person who added it

bought Ṁ10 Michigan NO

@ShakedKoplewitz Gaza…

See this is why I added this answer, I suspect people’s reaction to the general concept may differ from specific instances that come to mind

bought Ṁ5 Answer #uv8gelcvlg NO

@KimberlyWilberLIgt I was referring to real historical genocides. Although if we're counting fictional genocides, the Gaza genocide was also invented by leftists, so it points the same way.

@ShakedKoplewitz afaict the only argument for genocide being right leaning is "genocide is bad and I also think the right is bad", which isn't really worth much

@ShakedKoplewitz fwiw my position was “Biden and dems continue to aid and abet Gaza genocide, so it’s left-wing-coded” (weakly-felt)

bought Ṁ1 Genocide NO

@KimberlyWilberLIgt do you think that the people who say there's a genocide going on in Gaza right now would have more credibility if they hadn't spent the last several decades calling Israel genocidal?

@BrunoParga i'm not interested in litigating this topic, was only stating my position.

@KimberlyWilberLIgt that's how good discourse happens!

@BrunoParga One-party Systems are leftwing coded: Rusia, USSR, Cuba;

Rightwing coded systems are “apolitical” ≈ 0 parties. Chile (Pinochet), Spain (Franco). Etc.

@JaimeSantaCruz ugh, I had written a reply and it somehow got lost.

I am not sure to what extent the Falange was not a party, akin to the communist parties in the respective countries but with a (somewhat) different ideology.

Also Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy are pretty central examples of far-right regimes and they were single-party.

But I generally agree it is a left-wing thing; more regimes, more people, more person-years - and all that's still true if you exclude China, I think.

@Vesperstelo

So China is Left Wing but the genocide it carries over is right wing…? 🤔. PLEASE EXPLAIN

@KarlK pet implies taking care of it, i.e. not abusing it as is the norm for human-held cows.

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