The remaining options of this market will resolve "Yes" if OpenAI publicly releases the weights of a reasoning model (e.g., o1, o3) or a large language model (LLM) that is at least as advanced as GPT-3. When an option's date passes, it will resolve to “No”.

To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution. A model with some commercial or other restrictions is also sufficient, as long as users have access to all the weights.

Modified but similar resolution to this polymarket market.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4 ‌‌

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L ‌‌

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so (this market)‌

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2‌ ‌

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4 ‌

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 ‌

• Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Applicable Models:

  • Reasoning models that are publicly released with their weights.

  • Large Language Models (LLMs) that are better than GPT-3.