Gary Marcus has been skeptical of AGI soon.

Will he change his mind this year? For example, if he says "wow, those people freaking out about AGI soon were more right than I was" that counts. If he updates slightly, that doesn't count.

I will resolve YES/NO by poll majority with me as the tiebreaker.
Poll answers should be based on Gary Marcus' public statements. If needed, I'll ask him in December 2025, and that may produce a yes/no answer, which should make the poll easy.

A later reversed change of mind also counts, so if it's giving clear YES, I might run a poll early.

Duplicate of

/warty/will-robin-hanson-get-agipilled-in