Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things? | Manifold

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Standard

11

Ṁ371

2030

45%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my personal opinion, unless @SemioticRivalry disagrees.

Feel free to ask for clarification about what is meant in the comment but I'll likely keep it vague to resolve to the spirit of the question if precise definitions might take away from that

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

Does any amount past median human level count as superhuman?

@toms I think superhuman is generally better than (almost?) any human, so no

bought Ṁ10 YES

We die in most timelines where this resolves no

@Joshua We die in most timelines ̶w̶̶h̶̶e̶̶r̶̶e̶̶ ̶̶t̶̶h̶̶i̶̶s̶̶ ̶̶r̶̶e̶̶s̶̶o̶̶l̶̶v̶̶e̶̶s̶̶ ̶̶n̶̶o̶̶

Related questions

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

Will an opensource LLM on huggingface beat an average human at the most common LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Related questions

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Will an opensource LLM on huggingface beat an average human at the most common LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules