Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) before 2026?

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Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.

This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the GPT-N naming pattern ends.

Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will also resolve YES if OpenAI releases o3 before 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES when:
- A regular person from at least one major country (50M+ population)
- Can pay to get access to
- An o3 model (including o3-mini)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Should this count as a release? Probably not right? but I should probably refine what release means. Please give suggestions, I'm planning to clarify it in the next day or 2

@Bayesian definitely not a release yet

@Bayesian when is it scheduled for release btw?

@Bayesian i see "o3-mini around the end of January and full o3 shortly after that"

@MalachiteEagle so when a regular person from at least 1 major country (50m+ pop) can pay some amount to get access to an o3 model (o3-mini low counts) this resolves YES?

How did I know

Maybe o3 is Orion? Like 3 stars in Orion's belt?

o3 COUNTS!

How does this resolve if they release a model that uses planning but is not called o2?

@DylanBowman I modified the description, is that a satisfactory clarification

@Bayesian What if they don't end the o pattern, but OpenAI decides to do a little trolling and name it o3

@StarkLN uh that counts as o2 yeah, as long as it has the o2 vibe

@copiumarc damn 👀

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