Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
10
210Ṁ392
2031
14%
chance

In 1994 Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm for finding the prime factors of an integer; on a quantum computer it runs in polylogarithmic time, which is almost an exponential speed-up over the fastest classical algorithms.

Major cryptosystems rely on the relative difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes. Large quantum computers could utilise the algorithm to pose a major threat to these systems.

This market will resolve YES if any major cryptosystem is broken using a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm by 2030; else, it will resolve NO.

Science
Quantum Computing
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Relevant paper

People are also trading

Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
+4% 1d81% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
+4% 1d29% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
38% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
18% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
8% chance
In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
2044
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
47% chance
Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
20% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
81% chance
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2075?
78% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules