Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?
Mini
9
Ṁ3292031
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 1994 Peter Shor developed a quantum algorithm for finding the prime factors of an integer; on a quantum computer it runs in polylogarithmic time, which is almost an exponential speed-up over the fastest classical algorithms.
Major cryptosystems rely on the relative difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes. Large quantum computers could utilise the algorithm to pose a major threat to these systems.
This market will resolve YES if any major cryptosystem is broken using a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm by 2030; else, it will resolve NO.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
19% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
17% chance
Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
41% chance
Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?
21% chance
🔓What will happen before RSA-2048 encryption is widely considered broken?
Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?
22% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
48% chance
Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?
47% chance