Context: In Brazil, there's a growing popularity and accessibility of Psilocybe cubensis, commonly known as "magic mushrooms." This increase is partly due to the current legal ambiguity: while the mushrooms themselves aren't banned, substances extracted from them, like psilocybin and psilocin, are prohibited. The availability of these mushrooms is fueled by online sales, promising discreet delivery and therapeutic benefits. Despite this, there's a lack of comprehensive data on their recreational or medicinal use in the country. (souce - in portuguese)

The prediction market question focuses on the likelihood of a significant legal or supply setback, which could result from changes in regulatory actions, law enforcement practices, supply chain disruptions, or shifts in public perception and scientific understanding of these substances.

Resolution Criteria: The question will be resolved based on developments such as new legislation, enforcement actions, major supply chain disruptions, or public health advisories specifically targeting psilocybin-containing mushrooms in Brazil. A significant setback is defined as a notable decrease in the availability or a substantial increase in legal risks associated with these mushrooms (e.g. two or more major vendor websites going out of business due to new regulation or law enforcement actions or threats).

If no such developments occur by the end of 2024, the question will be resolved as "NO". I won't bet on this market.