Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032? | Manifold

Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032?

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4

Ṁ87

2032

65%

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1W

1M

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The 5 year survival rate for GBM was reported to be 6.8% by the National Brain Tumor Society (https://braintumor.org/take-action/about-gbm/)

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@traders As the creator is inactive, I'll clarify the resolution criteria as a moderator:

This market will resolve based on the most recent statistical report published by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States (CBTRUS) as of market close. Resolution will be based on the five-year relative survival rate for all ages and diagnoses of glioblastoma considered in the report.

For example, in their 2023 report (https://doi.org/10.1093/neuonc/noad149), CBTRUS report a relative survival rate of 6.9% (95% confidence interval 6.8–7.1) for glioblastoma across all age groups (table 10).

The point estimate (i.e. disregarding the confidence interval) must be greater than 10.0% for this market to resolve YES, if it's 10.0% or less, then this market resolves NO.

Market with more precisely-defined resolution criteria (and somewhat different threshold/end date):

I think this is a good market and a good way to operationalize progress in the pharmaceutical industry and management of rarer kinds of cancer.

Could you potentially clarify how you will resolve the market if there is no data from exactly June 18, 2032?

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Related questions

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Will a novel therapeutic/device which confers a survival benefit for glioblastoma be FDA approved by EOY 2028?

Will brain death be reversible by 2070?

Will a cure that eradicated over 50% of cancer tumors without significant adverse side effects be found before 2050?

Will cancer be cured by 2035?

Will the US have fewer than 1000 cancer deaths in 2050?

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?

By the end of 2043, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?

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