Will I be diagnosed with cancer by 2035?
Plus
17
Ṁ17342036
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market will resolve YES if I report that I have been diagnosed with any type of cancer by the end of 2035. The diagnosis must be based on valid medical tests or procedures. The type of cancer and the method of diagnosis are irrelevant for the market outcome.
I do not have any family history for cancer, other than some minor late-stage skin cancer that my Grandma has.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@LachlanMunro Some sources say Carson was born Nov. 30, 1993, which would make him 29. However, not all info in these reports is correct.
this makes it look like adult males in their 30s have a less than 1% chance of being diagnosed with cancer:
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/incidence/age#heading-Zero
Related questions
Related questions
Will cancer be cured by 2035?
17% chance
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2035?
21% chance
Will I be alive by 2100?
39% chance
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2038?
36% chance
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2037?
23% chance
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2036?
20% chance
Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?
47% chance
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2034?
17% chance
Will cancer be less deadly than dementia in 2030?
23% chance
Will the US have fewer than 1000 cancer deaths in 2050?
24% chance