Will we get a cure for cancer before 2036?
Basic
15
755
2036
18%
chance

Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.

In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2036.

Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor

/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891 (this question)

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37

Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc

Other questions for 2036:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-9cd12d2b6612

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa

Other reference points for cure for cancer:

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-we

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c

The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ25 NO

As a survivor I am betting NO but actually hoping to lose. So kind of a win-win :-)

bought Ṁ30 YES from 20% to 23%