Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?
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2100
20%
chance

Resolves as YES we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer.

In the context of this question the threshold for "we get a cure for cancer" is defined as: 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.

Numeric markets:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc

Discovery of alien life questions:

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-54f04dd10acb

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-5553c437e8a4

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-8c83c68daf1a

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-0e33b4a24ab0

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-10cdf89aac16

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-50f151c4102f

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-6615ab742cc6

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-e944d3f186ed

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-b0a07b306797

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-a01eba4fa0fb

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-df678746ea9a

Cure for cancer questions:

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor

/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37

Other reference points for discover of alien life:

/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

Other reference points for cure for cancer:

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-we

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c

In order for the "we get a cure for cancer" threshold to be met, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to the indicated date.

The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.


If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered on Earth, then it must clearly point to the past or present existence of life outside of Earth's biosphere. This lifeform must have existed continuously for at least 1 million years off-Earth.

If evidence of extra-terrestrial life is discovered elsewhere, then it must have existed continuously outside of Earth's biosphere for at least 1 million years in order to qualify.

If this discovery occurs in multiple steps, then the step that leads to a 90% consensus among the scientific community is considered the "discovery" in the context of this question.

The definition of life in this question includes systems capable of self-replication, storing information and evolving.

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lol @ human exceptionalism

@lukres hmm?

@lukres do you want be to write more questions on superconductors?

@RemNi Noo the questions are good, lol @ people betting no .. I just wish it had more liquidity

@lukres haha yeah I think it's one of those questions where people have completely different views. Guess I can boost it a bit for more liquidity

@lukres Here you go, new superconductor question: /RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-039aff3aa191

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