How many FLOP of compute will have been executed by the time chess is solved?
Basic
2
Ṁ60Jan 1
83%
>= 10^30 FLOP
50%
>= 10^35 FLOP
50%
>= 10^40 FLOP
40%
>= 10^45 FLOP
I or whoever resolves this market will make a best-effort evaluation of the total number of floating-point operations that have been executed by humanity or its descendants at the time chess is solved. Solved is "ultraweak" - only a proof of the outcome with optimal play is needed.
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https://aiimpacts.org/global-computing-capacity/ suggests that global compute capacity was something like 10^21 flops; assuming that this was on for all 24 years of this century as an approximation of all computer history gives an estimate of 24*365*24*3600*1e21 which is roughly 1e29 flops
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