Will a comet with magnitude brighter than +2.0 appear before the end of the 2020s? | Manifold

Will a comet with magnitude brighter than +2.0 appear before the end of the 2020s?

Mini

1

Ṁ10

2030

59%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution source: heavens-above.com

Note that lower magnitude means brighter.

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1,000

and

1.00

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There have been (at least?) 18 such comets since 1900 according to https://www.cometwatch.co.uk/brightest-comets-through-history/

Brightest Comets Through History - CometWatch

Making a list of the greatest or brightest comets of all time is a difficult task. With visual brightness aside, some of these comets would have [...]

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