How does this market resolve if the election occurs before 2025?

What if their parties have a tie in seats?

Trudeau just separated from his wife, seems to be bad news for his reelection campaign

338Canada has the probability of the CPC winning the next election at 90% as of yesterday's update (I was confused at the sudden YES spike, so I decided to look it up - the reason is that 338Canada had a similar spike, from about 55% to 90%.) This is probably the result of a big swing in polls last week, probably as a result of Trudeau's cabinet shakeup.