Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040? | Manifold

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

Manifold Manifold Business Future Carson's Important Markets

Basic

52

Ṁ1.6k

2041

66%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Does not resolve positively if Manifold offers additional things you can trade mana for - trades themselves have to involve USD or another currency.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold Markets add betting with USD by 2035?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?

Sort by:

Arbitrage, sort of:

Assuming Manifund doesn't count, why not? Is predicting charitable impact too narrow of a scope for it to count as a prediction market?

Does manifold have any CTFC connections?

CFTC

predicts NO

@xyz Not that I know of.

Would love to be wrong.

Related in Manifold

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

What will be the biggest topic of 2024?

See more Manifold questions

Related in Manifold Business Future

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

-4% 1d78% chance

See more Manifold Business Future questions

Related in Carson's Important Markets

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

+7% 1d74% chance

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

See more Carson's Important Markets questions

More related questions

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

-5% 1d48% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold Markets add betting with USD by 2035?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?

Manifold questions

Will Tumbles be late to pay back a loan?

What will be the biggest topic of 2024?

Manifold Business Future questions

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Carson's Important Markets questions

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Related questions

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?

Will Manifold Markets add betting with USD by 2035?

Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?