Will any current member of the EU announce they are leaving before December 31st 2025
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The announcement could be the result of a referendum or a binding parliamentary vote or some other legally binding means.

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The only legally binding way to leave the EU is by notifying the intention to leave, as per Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. Is this what you mean?

predicts NO

@BrunoParga Anything which is legally binding which leads to this could also count

predicts NO

@ChadwickMiller Would you have resolved YES after the Brexit referendum when the government announced they would respect the result?

None of that was legally binding but it feels well within the spirit of this question

predicts NO

@ChadwickMiller could you please give examples of things that, if they happened, would cause you to resolve yes? Other legally binding ways to leave the European Union?

I ask because as long as Article 50 is not triggered, there can be as many referendums and declarations and whatever - the country is not leaving, and continues to be bound by EU law. So I guess what I mean to ask is what you mean exactly by "legally binding".

Worth noting that even Article 50 is reversible until it takes effect, two years after it is triggered. The UK asked for an extension of that period and it was granted by agreement of all other members.

predicts NO

(disregard this comment)

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes Yes I would resolve that to Yes

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