By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

AI Futurism

Basic

168

Ṁ71k

2027

43%

chance

ALL

https://twitter.com/solarise_webdev/status/1598708384441798656?t=gSyX2gzixpMryYOsyyxt7A&s=19

Close date updated to 2027-12-31 6:59 pm

Dec 2, 12:26pm: ~~By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters?~~ → By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

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bought Ṁ75 NO

I'm honestly hoping no

I'd really like to harvest mana from the unreasonable optimists in this market but I'm hesitant to take a huge position in a market created by someone who isn't well known.

predicts NO

@AndrewHartman Bet in the Scott Alexander one instead then, he's pretty trusted.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Certainly, but his doesn't have quite the same conditions iirc. This market, as stated, seems like a slam dunk for NO.

@AndrewHartman This market is almost definitionally more likely to resolve YES than Scott Alexander's market. If AI can make any arbitrary hollywood-level film by Jan 1, 2028, then it can almost certainly make a lower quality, animated one, that doesn't have the requirement of being at the level of actual mainstream films!

https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/11zwaxx/microsofts_nuwaxl_creates_an_11_minute/

guys 2028 is just beyond of too far

https://youtu.be/ny2A_6lXilA

predicts NO

@Kormann Maybe, maybe not. Not sure if you watched the original Corridor Digital video, but they had to do A LOT of manual work to make it even visually coherent, forget about all of the writing and acting. And that was for a cool-for-the-novelty-but-not-actually-very-good couple of minutes about two dudes play rock paper scissors.

predicts NO

@jonsimon *playing

For comparison

@ChanaMessinger Is there a minimum length or complexity? Could it be a 1 hour animation of a snail moving through some leaves?

predicts NO

@ChanaMessinger Could we get an update on this?

If AI is under serious legal restrictions, does this resolve NA or False?

@StrayClimb this isn't a significant threat.

predicts YES

@L interesting, are you a no on this market?

predicts YES

@StrayClimb Hmm, I'll think about whether I disagree with 70% enough to trade, I probably don't. But I don't think legal restrictions could prevent this from occurring. It's much too easy to build with 2027's ai algorithms and compute substrates.

predicts NO

@L I'm really confused by your bets here; haven't you been confidently betting in other markets that AGI will likely come by 2028?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing yeah? why would that be confusing?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing like are you just confused why I don't bet every capabilities market up? or did I bet in a way that seems actively in conflict

@IsaacKing like, I think there will be tons of legal restrictions on ai. but I don't think any of them will stop ai from being able to do anything a human can.