2024 Presidential Election: How many "Rust Belt" (WI, MI, PA) States will Democrats win?
Basic
7
Ṁ721Nov 10
2%
3
0.6%
2
0.5%
1
96%
0
Significance:
Per 270toWin.com's consensus map, Democrats are favored to win 226 EVs, these 3 states (WI: 10, MI: 15, PA: 19) would provide the 44 EVs to reach 270.
Data:
Per https://manifold.markets/elections, these 3 states each have a ~65% chance of voting for Democrats in the 2024 election, so by linearity of expectation, this market should have a mean of Democrats winning ~1.95 out of these 3 states.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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