2024 Turnout vs Election Winner
Plus
10
Ṁ7812Dec 1
1.2%
More than 2020, Harris wins
4%
More than 2020, Trump wins
1.4%
Less than 2020, Harris wins
94%
Less than 2020, Trump wins
The conventional wisdom is that low turnout favors Republicans and high turnout favors Democrats,
but will that change with Trump/Elon focusing on getting young low propensity voters and many (establishment) Republicans endorsing Harris indicating the 65+ demographic may have left Trump b/c of COVID/Jan 6th?
Turnout is measured by total # of voters (not as a %)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
4% chance
Will the 2024 election have higher turnout than 2020?
7% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
6% chance
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
6% chance
What will voter turnout be in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)
2024 Election Spreads | Swing States, Trump-Harris Popular Vote, and Selected Senate Seats
2024 Presidential Election Result Markets:
Will a state or district that voted by over 55% for a candidate in the 2020 election vote the opposite way in 2024?
4% chance
Conditional on NON-record high voter turnout, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?
1% chance