This question regards the order of state margins in the 2024 election:

Current order per https://manifold.markets/election

Lean Dem:

CO: 88% D

NH: 85% D

ME: 84% D

NM: 79% D

MN: 79% D

VA: 78% D

Swing states:

MI: 55% D

PA: 51% D

WI: 50% D

NV: 58% R

GA: 59% R

AZ: 59% R

NC: 67% R

Lean R:

OH: 85% R

FL: 90% R

TX: 93% R

AK: 93% R

IA: 93% R

This will resolve as yes if any Lean Dem state votes more Republican than the median swing state OR if any Lean Rep State votes more Democratic than the median swing state.

Motivation for this question:

Nate Silver gave TX/FL 2/3% chance of being the tipping point, this is low compared to >10% each in 538s model.

JHK is more in line with 538s view (8-9%), but Nate Silver is highly respected. Is he right?